This may require training, periodic maintenance, and so forth that can be organized in advance. The latter occur when the data exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period. Pre-modern armies, especially in Europe, tended to campaign in the summer months – peasant conscripts tended to melt away at harvest time, nor did it make economic sense in an agricultural society to neglect the sowing season.
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- In time series data, seasonality refers to the trends that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly.
“Higher supply over the next few weeks and cooler weather may mark a seasonal low for Nymex gas futures before they recover in the autumn.” Seasonal things happen periodically, during a certain season. Seasonal and seasonable are sometimes interchanged, probably because of their obvious connection with season. The resulting seasonally adjusted data are used, for example, when analyzing or reporting non-seasonal trends over durations rather longer than the seasonal period.
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- A really good way to find periodicity, including seasonality, in any regular series of data is to remove any overall trend first and then to inspect time periodicity.
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For example, for monthly data, if there is a seasonality effect, we would expect to see significant peaks at lag 12, 24, 36, and so on (although the intensity may decrease the further out we go). However, if the period is not known, the autocorrelation plot can help. Apart from these considerations, the organisations need to know if variation they have experienced has been more or less than the expected amount, beyond what the usual seasonal variations account for.
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The Northern Hemisphere experiences most direct sunlight during May, June, and July (thus the traditional celebration of Midsummer in June), as the hemisphere faces the Sun. In temperate and polar regions, the seasons are marked by changes in the intensity of sunlight that reaches the Earth’s surface, variations of which may cause animals to undergo hibernation or to migrate, and plants to be dormant. A season is a division of the year based on changes in weather, ecology, and the number of daylight hours in a given region.
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